Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and Apple Inc (AAPL.O) will remain on the leaderboard for their first and third spots, but both are expected to lose market share to Chinese rivals, the market research firm said Thursday.
That follows a 10 percent drop in output worldwide in the quarter of March, when the outbreak spread and peaked in China before sweeping across Europe and the US.
TrendForce reduced its annual smartphone output forecast to 1.24 billion, down 11.3 per cent from 1.35 billion in 2019.
"With tanking major economies around the world, the pandemic is now making its effects felt on the demand side of the smartphone market," TrendForce said.
Apple, expected to report March-quarter results on Thursday, has slashed its iPhone 11 prices in China, which is the only major market where its stores are open. It has also launched an iPhone worth $399 which it hopes will find takers in a frugal economy.
TrendForce estimates that iPhone production fell nearly 9 percent in the March quarter to about 38 million units, and expects a further drop of 2 million units in the current one.
Market share of Apple will slide this quarter to 12.6 per cent from the last 13.5 per cent, TrendForce said.
Market share of Samsung will ease 3 percentage points in the June quarter to 20.3 per cent.
"Chinese brands continue to exert pressure on Samsung's presence in the Southeast Asian and Indian markets by the day," the company added.
The South Korean tech giant on Wednesday warned of significant declines in the second quarter of its mobile business.
China's Huawei, which saw revenue growth slow sharply in the first quarter, is expected to make up about 48 million phones in the quarter of June to meet domestic demand recovery, up 2 million from the quarter of March, TrendForce said.
The Chinese companies Xiaomi, Oppo and Vivo will each acquire market share in the quarter of June. TrendForce added that Vivo was the only smartphone brand among the top six to see volumes increase in the quarter of March but warned things were set to change in light of lockdowns in Southeast Asia and India.